Demons and Decisions
Front Matter
1
Introduction
1.1
Two Questions
1.2
Ideal Decision Theory
1.2.1
Decisions Under Certainty
1.2.2
Decisions Under Uncertainty
1.2.3
Decision Theorists are Ideal
1.2.4
The Keynesian Critique
1.3
Proceduralism and Ratificationism
1.3.1
Proceduralism Defined
1.4
Causal Ratificationism
2
Make Ratifiable Decisions
2.1
Basic Decision Theory
2.1.1
Simple Decision Problems
2.1.2
Defining Basic Decision Theory
2.1.3
Why Basic Decision Theory Fails
2.2
Some Theories of Decision
2.2.1
Newcomb Problems
2.2.2
Introducing EDT and CDT
2.2.3
Making The Theories Precise
2.2.4
Non-Unique Solutions
2.2.5
Ratificationism
2.3
Games and Decisions
2.3.1
Newcomb Games
2.3.2
Familiar Games
2.3.3
An Indecisive Example
2.3.4
An Example of a Dilemma
3
Why So Defensive?
3.1
Decision Theory and Making Decisions
3.2
Why Do Decision Theory
3.3
Why Do Ideal Decision Theory
3.4
Why Not Proceduralism
4
Against Decisiveness
4.1
What Is Decisiveness
4.2
Six Decision Problems
5
Against Rational Possibility
5.1
Four Puzzle Cases
5.1.1
Outguess the Demon
5.1.2
Open Ended Good
5.1.3
Heaven
5.1.4
The Salesman
5.1.5
Characteristics of the Puzzles
5.1.6
Multiple Standards
5.1.7
Stake Sensitivity
5.1.8
No Ideals
5.1.9
Cognitive Limits
5.2
The Possibility Assumption in Philosophical Arguments
5.2.1
An Argument against EDT {
(
badargumentedt?
)
}
5.2.2
A Recipe for Counterexamples
5.2.3
An Instance of the Recipe
5.2.4
Betting Against the Demon
5.3
Why Allow Dilemmas
5.3.1
Arguments Against Dilemmas
5.3.2
What Dilemmas are Like
6
Against Coherence Norms
6.1
Coherence for the Incoherent
6.2
Coherence is a Substantive Norm
6.3
Coherence in Signaling Games
7
Responding to Evidential Decision Theory
7.1
So Why Ain’t You Rich?
7.1.1
Example One - Split Newcomb
7.1.2
Example Two - Coins and Signals
7.1.3
Example Three - Coins and Newcomb
7.1.4
Why The Examples Matter
7.2
To Bet the Impossible Bet
8
Epistemic Uniqueness and Decisiveness
8.1
Uniqueness and Permissivism
8.2
Chicken
8.3
Elections
8.4
Objections
8.5
Conclusion
9
Puzzles about Weak Dominance
9.1
Why Weak Dominance
9.2
The Boundaries of Games
9.3
Three Kinds of Demon
9.4
Benefits of Weak Dominance
9.5
Iterated Weak Dominance
Appendicies
A
Game Theory
B
About a Demon
C
Methodology
D
Decision Tables and Decision Problems
E
Non-Demonic Decision Theory
F
Backward Induction
References
Made with bookdown
Demons and Decisions
E
Non-Demonic Decision Theory